David Jarman summarizes a new poll on the Washington State Governors race for 2016 that predictably puts Jay Inslee in the lead for re-election.  However, I am not as optimistic as he is about what the polls says for Inslee.  Anytime a siting elected official is below 50% in the polls, he is vulnerable.  Moreover, although the poll of the 879 sample had Inslee in the lead over 2012 opponent Rob McKenna, it was within the margin of error  43-38 .  Inslee did lead more handily by double digits against lesser know potential rivals Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant, State Sen. Andy Hill, and U.S.  Rep. Dave Reichert.

I do agree with Jarman that McKenna does not see very interested in running again.  Whether that is a feint or his real inclination is hard to say.  He has a bit more time to wait and see if Inslee looks vulnerable.  Having been on the ballot twice and once wining a state-wide election for attorney general, Mckenna can put a state-wide machine in place quicker than others.

Also, there will be a lot of anti-incumbency feelings aimed at Inslee, fairly or unfairly.  Democrats will have held the Governors Mansion in Olympia for decades, and the White House for eight years.  Under such situations, it is usually easy to convince independents and first-time voters to blame whoever is in charge for whatever frustrates them in their lives.

Regardless, Democrats will probably keep the Governors seat.  It is a blue trending State.  Most of the Republican Party gains in the legislature have not been won at the ballot box, but instead by convincing (bribing) a few fickle Democrats to change parties in exchange for Committee Chairmanships.  I doubt if they can match that at the ballot box.

Of course, much will ride on the national political climate at the national level, who gets the nomination for each party, the economy, etc.